EUR/USD (Swing Forecast)
Potential StrategyWait until a new pattern emerges.
What is the trend? Neutral
What is this pattern? No pattern present
Why is this significant? There is no high probability pattern so we cannot place a trade.
What other indicators or Fib Levels support this thesis? No trade
Reason for StrategyWe have drawn a bearish channel on the 2hr Chart that has provide fairly accurate support and resistance at this point.  The pair also has broken the Daily Chart channel.  Both of these charts point to a move farther down, but we will still stay on the sidelines until a new pattern emerges.Trade InvalidationNo trade
Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance 3 Bottom of channel See Daily Chart
Resistance 2 1.4746 38.2% of AB on the Daily Chart
Resistance 1 Top of channel See 2hr Chart
Current Price 1.4530  
Support 1 Bottom of channel See 2hr Chart
Support 2 N/A N/A
Support 3 N/A N/A

                                  
Daily Chart - Broken bullish channel.
2hr Chart - Bearish channel. DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the authors are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or other employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the authors may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and the currency research team do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought. This website is not intended for residents of the United Kingdom, Singapore or Australia.

Dollar bulls remain in control with the greenback rising to 3 month highs against the euro and 2 month highs against the British pound and Australian dollar. Traders across the globe are reacting to the more upbeat and hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve by selling equities, selling gold and buying dollars. The only mismatch is in bonds with Treasury yields falling across the board.

Risk aversion is also helping the dollar as Greece's problems prove to be only the tip of the iceberg for the Eurozone. This morning, Standard & Poor's announced plans to reevaluate the ratings of more than 1.46 trillion euros of covered bonds. Lower ratings would deal a further blow to the attractiveness of euro denominated assets.

Philly Fed and Leading Indicators Beat, Jobless Claims Disappoint

Meanwhile, stronger than expected manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region offsets the decline in manufacturing activity in the Empire State. The Philadelphia Fed survey rose to the highest level since Feb 2005, which suggests that manufacturing sector is still chugging along. Leading indicators also rose by 0.9 percent thanks to an improvement in jobless claims, average workweek, building permits and consumer expectations. The only dark cloud in this morning's report were jobless claims which increased for the second week in a row. Weekly claims rose from 473k to 480k while continuing claims rose from 5.181M to 5.186M. Since the first 2 weeks of the month are survey weeks for non-farm payrolls, there is a good chance that the U.S. economy endured net job losses last month. Dollar bulls may have to wait until January for positive job growth to return.
Bernanke Vote

Finally, the Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on Bernanke's confirmation today. Ultimately he will be confirmed for another term as Fed Chairman but not before a round of heated debate between Senators on the effectiveness of his leadership.

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